Real estate was in a real mess when Xchanging last surveyed the sector. As the catalyst for the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the collapse of the US sub-prime property market precipitated huge losses for property owners and holders of mortgage debt alike.
Real estate was in a real mess when Xchanging last surveyed the sector. As the catalyst for the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the collapse of the US sub-prime property market precipitated huge losses for property owners and holders of mortgage debt alike.
Today, however, there is at last renewed cause for optimism.
According to a joint report1 from the the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC), the outlook for European real estate investment and development trends, and real estate finance and capital markets, is positive and improving with confidence at its highest since 2008:
It is a new world that is being shaped by two major forces. Capital is increasingly global in nature, flowing into European property from across the world to the larger, well-capitalised or well-established businesses. At the same time, decisions about the way that capital is deployed will become increasingly granular, as investors shut out of the core markets chase yields worth working for. What is distinct about 2013 is investors’ willingness to take on slightly more risk. Those surveyed by Emerging Trends Europe are still wary of southern Europe, but they are prepared to dig deeper into more stable markets to find opportunities.
The revival in the real estate sector is naturally linked to areas of recovery discernible in the wider global economy.
A case in point is the boom in Asian tourism to Europe, as described in the current Xchanging review of the Transportation, Travel and Leisure sector with, for example, a 35% increase in the number of Chinese visitors to Britain between 2010 and 2011.
Parts of Asia are themselves experiencing an extraordinary property boom, as recently reflected by this story in the Wall Street Journal:
HONG KONG—The city's property boom is so powerful it has scared away the ghosts. No matter what happened to real-estate prices in this superstitious Chinese city, the one surefire way to get a cheap apartment was to move in with a ghost. Websites track "haunted houses" or hongza, as they are known in Cantonese, which typically sell or rent for discounted prices.But the latest boom in real-estate prices has nearly wiped away Hong Kong's haunted-house discount.2
Perhaps paradoxically, e-commerce is another factor injecting momentum into real estate markets.
Whilst the increasing consumer preference for “clicks” over “bricks” may be bad news for many high street retailers, it is very good news for the industrial sector of the real estate business.
According to ProLogis,3 every €1 billion of online sales has generated warehouse demand for 72,000 square metres in Germany, France and the U.K. over the last five years as the internet sales boom feeds the need for efficient logistics.
We may not be anywhere near the heady heights of the previous property boom, but 2013 may prove to be the year when the foundations for a sustained real estate recovery are put in place after five years of upheaval.
1 http://pwc.to/15NfXMW
2 http://on.wsj.com/SBbuJY
3 http://bit.ly/13EZr1W